Thursday, July 28, 2005

Going Down?

PMI, a mortgage insurance company in Walnut Creek, just put out a list of the cities most likely to see home prices fall over the next two years. Naturally, San Francisco is in the top 10. (But it's not in the top five. And in fact, it has a less than 50% chance of seeing prices fall.)

Boston led the field, with a risk index of 553. That means there's better than a 55% chance that home prices will fall in that region. Long Island was No. 2. Interestingly, New York City doesn't pop up until No. 15.

Metro area's risk index
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Boston-Quincy, MA 553
Nassau-Suffolk (Long Island), NY 540
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 528
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 513
Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA 512
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA 509
Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA 469
San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood, CA 459
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA 432
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 422
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 421
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA 419
Edison, NJ 364
New York-Wayne-White Plains, NY-NJ 326
Detroit-Livonia, Dearborn MI 295
Newark-Union, NJ-PA 251
Minneapolis-St Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 249
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach- Deerfield Beach, FL 219
Average 213
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-MD-VA-WV 209
Denver-Aurora, CO 169
Warren-Farmington Hills-Troy, MI 168
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL 166
Tampa-St Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 166
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 130
Baltimore-Towson, MD 124
Austin-Round Rock, TX 116
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 109
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 106
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX 99
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA 95
Orlando, FL 94
Houston-Baytown-Sugarland, TX 93
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL 92
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 92
St Louis, MO-IL 90
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC 89
Kansas City, MO-KS 89
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 80
Philadelphia, PA 76
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA 71
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI 70
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH 69
San Antonio, TX 68
Columbus, OH 66
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA 64
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN 64
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN 60
Indianapolis, IN 59
Memphis, TN-MS-AR 58
Pittsburgh, PA 56